Biggest food & beverage inventory market trends in 2025

By Stephen Brown, LedgerGurus

As we move through 2025, the landscape for food and beverage businesses stands on the cusp of transformation. The coming year promises a dynamic blend of technological innovation, shifting consumer behaviors, and economic recalibration that will provide challenges and opportunities alike for small and medium sized businesses. In this blog we’ll do a dive deep into the most significant trends that are set to reshape the food and beverage business ecosystem, offering insights and strategic perspectives for business owners looking to thrive in this rapidly changing environment. 

The trends to watch for

Here are five trends food and beverage product businesses should look for in 2025: 

1. Tariffs 
2. Supply chain complexities 
3. De Minimis rule changes 
4. Interest rates 
5. Inflation 
   
   

Tariffs

2025 brings a new US Presidency for Donald Trump. With that comes his renewed commitment to tariffs. His proposed tariffs include: 

1. Mexico and Canada: Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. 
2. China: He also intends to levy as much as a 60% tariff on all imports from China. 
3. General Tariffs: Trump has suggested implementing 10-20% tariffs on all other imports. 

The increased costs of importing finished goods and supplies could have a significant impact on food and beverage product businesses. Imagine if the cost of input ingredients like sugar, wheat and coffee beans go up for food manufacturers or if the cost of finished goods imported, wine for example, go up for resellers/wholesales. The reality may be very different than the proposals, but businesses need to consider moderate to significant increases in their cost of goods starting next year.

Options to adjust to tariffs could include: 

• Price increases 
• Changing suppliers 
• Absorbing increased costs 
  
  

Supply chain complexities

There are still many supply chain issues facing anyone importing products. These include: 

• Red Sea Shipping Attacks 
• East and Gulf Coast port strike 
• Air freight costs 

Red Sea shipping attacks

There have been numerous attacks on ships by Houthi rebels, leading to increased security concerns and disruptions in maritime traffic. These attacks have caused many shipping companies to divert their routes away from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. 

This rerouting is causing the most impact between Europe and Asia, but what affects one region cascades to others. 

Businesses should continue to avoid shipments through this area via targeted ships for the foreseeable future to avoid potential losses. 

East and Gulf Coast port strike

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) held a strike on United States East and Gulf Ports in October 2024. It lasted 3 days, but was suspended until January 15, 2025, to allow more time for contract negotiations. 

A tentative agreement was reached in January but still needs to be ratified by both parties. Any future strikes will impair imports and create bottlenecks in redirected imports going through the West Coast. 

To avoid disruption, businesses should determine if delayed receipt of upcoming shipments will impact business operations. If so, here are a few mitigation strategies: 

• Adjust marketing and sales plans to account for stock outs 
• Route short term shipments through the West Coast 
• Consider air freight for products that haven’t left the port or origin 

Air freight costs

Air freight demand was high in 2024, particularly from China to the United States, due to the de minimis rule exploitation by Temu and Shein (see below). Air freight demand is projected to grow by 4 to 6% in 2025. With the continued rise of demand for fresh and exotic food products as well as the rise of food and beverage ecommerce and online grocery stores, air freight in the food and beverage industry may grow even faster than other industries accounted for in this projection. 

De Minimis rule changes

The de minimis rule refers to a threshold below which certain transactions or benefits are considered too minor to warrant taxation. The de minimis rule applies to international shipping and customs. It sets a value threshold below which goods can enter a country without incurring duties or taxes. In the United States the de minimis threshold is $800, meaning shipments valued below this amount can enter duty-free 

Temu and Shein have exploited the de minimis rule to ship low-cost items directly to consumers circumventing the duties and taxes a domestic distributor or seller would pay. 

There is legislation and executive action that is being explored to eliminate the ability to exploit this rule. This started with the Biden administration and will likely be supported and even expanded by the Trump administration. 

For businesses using the de minimis rule, this will mean an increase in costs. For those who don’t use this loophole, there will be reduced competition from foreign sellers whose main advantage is price. 

Interest rates

2024 saw the end of interest rate increases and the beginning of a lowering of rates in September and November. This is the beginning of what is projected to be additional rate cuts in 2025. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement multiple interest rate cuts throughout 2025, potentially reducing the federal funds rate to around 4.0% or lower by the end of the year. 

Lower rates will result in lower costs of borrowing which tend to be much higher than the federal funds rate. For food and beverage product businesses, lending to purchase inventory is often a necessity. Lower rates will be a relief to the expense borrowing costs of the last few years. 

Keys to lower rates will be job growth or decline and continued decreases in inflation.  Should unemployment increase, expect greater rate cuts. While not expected, should inflation hold or increase again, expect rates to be held or even increase. Businesses who want to plan conservatively should assume current costs of capital with limited improvements over the year. 

Inflation

Inflation is still here. As of Decmeber 2024, the Consumer Price Index was at 2.9% and core inflation was 3.2%. Granted it is much better than the peaks the US experienced in 2022, but still much higher than the averages seen in previous years. 

With inflation still higher than desirable, businesses need to be deliberate about pricing strategies and price increases. The costs of labor and goods will erode profitability otherwise. 

Some best practices for pricing, especially in an inflationary environment include: 

• Regular price tests and adjustments 
• Explore bundling as a strategy to increase order value 
• Explore product variants that can allow for a better gross margin
  
  
  

Positioning for success in 2025

2024 was a wild year for selling products, and 2025 looks to continue the pattern. Some trends appear to be beneficial while others will have a negative impact. What’s most important is to prepare for likely outcomes and adjust as they become reality. 

Staying on top of these trends requires solid financial management and a clear understanding of their implications. With expert guidance and tools, businesses can navigate these challenges, protect profitability, and position themselves for growth in an ever-changing landscape. Cin7 inventory management software provides real time inventory and order data across all your sales channels as well as AI-powered forecasting to help you plan for what’s to come in 2025 and beyond.

LedgerGurus provides the financial expertise and support needed to manage complexities and build resilience for whatever lies ahead, making LedgerGurus and Cin7 a winning combination for food and beverage companies.

About the author

Stephen Brown is the COO for LedgerGurus, a client accounting services firm specializing in ecommerce businesses. Stephen has an MBA, an engineering degree, and nearly two decades of experience in various technology companies before LedgerGurus.